Discussion:
Jay Leno’s_lies,_Jay_Leno’s damn lies, and statistics
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Ubiquitous
2008-12-17 11:13:17 UTC
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by Robert Seidman

Jay Leno says people are going to bed earlier these days. Jay Leno says
10pm is the new 11:30.

Jay Leno is wrong.

Despite the headline, I seriously doubt Jay Leno intended to be
deceitful even if it was good PR for being on at 10pm. I’m sure Mr. Leno
believes what he said is true. But Leno is wrong when he says that
people are going to bed earlier. It is definitely true that more people
are watching TV at 10pm than 11:30pm, but that’s nothing new. People
actually do go to sleep. But are they going to sleep earlier?

The Nielsen data when it comes to television viewing doesn’t indicate
that people are going to bed earlier. In fact, it indicates that people
are generally going to bed at the same time they always did, and if
anything are staying up a little bit later now!

What the data shows is a decreasing trend of viewership between
10pm-11pm (not great news for Leno’s new timeslot), and increasing
viewership between 11:30pm-12:30am. That holds true both as a one year
trend and a five year trend.

According to Nielsen data, 6% fewer 18-49 year olds are watching TV
between 10pm-11pm than were watching 5 years ago. 4% fewer 18-34 year
olds are watching between 10pm-11pm than five years ago. If you want a
broader view, looking at 25-54 year olds, viewing between 10pm-11pm is
down 7% over the last five years.

Meanwhile, the trend is up for viewing between 11:30pm-12:30am over the
last five years among 18-49 year olds (1% increase) and 18-34 year olds
(5% increase) and is completely flat among the broader 25-54
demographic.

All data above is based on LIVE viewing only, but since the discussion
was about whether people were going to bed earlier, bringing DVR viewing
habits into the mix didn’t make much sense.

Some have made the case that the decreases in the 10pm hour mean that
Leno is right. Obviously, I don’t think so. I attribute the decreases in
the 10pm hour almost entirely to DVR proliferation. But sure, it could
be a variety of things from videogames, reading, watching DVDs and yes,
some people going to bed earlier. But if the trend of live viewing is up
at 11:30pm, it’s hard to ascribe any merit to the notion that people are
going to bed earlier overall.
--
It is simply breathtaking to watch the glee and abandon with which
the liberal media and the Angry Left have been attempting to turn
our military victory in Iraq into a second Vietnam quagmire. Too bad
for them, it's failing.
Alison Dubois
2008-12-17 18:34:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ubiquitous
by Robert Seidman
Jay Leno says people are going to bed earlier these days. Jay Leno says
10pm is the new 11:30.
Jay Leno is wrong.
Despite the headline, I seriously doubt Jay Leno intended to be
deceitful even if it was good PR for being on at 10pm. I’m sure Mr. Leno
believes what he said is true. But Leno is wrong when he says that
people are going to bed earlier. It is definitely true that more people
are watching TV at 10pm than 11:30pm, but that’s nothing new. People
actually do go to sleep. But are they going to sleep earlier?
Here is a radical idea: maybe they are going to bed earlier because
in 2008 we can set our DVRs to record the show and watch it the next
day.

So I record Leno and Letterman on my DVR and watch both the next day.
Post by Ubiquitous
The Nielsen data when it comes to television viewing doesn’t indicate
that people are going to bed earlier. In fact, it indicates that people
are generally going to bed at the same time they always did, and if
anything are staying up a little bit later now!
Neilson shows my Tv watching Leno. It can't tell if
i'm watching it myself or if my DVR is doing it for me.
Post by Ubiquitous
According to Nielsen data, 6% fewer 18-49 year olds are watching TV
between 10pm-11pm than were watching 5 years ago.
Here is another radical thought: maybe these 18-49 year olds are
watching Colber and the shows before him on Comedy Central.
Post by Ubiquitous
All data above is based on LIVE viewing only, but since the discussion
was about whether people were going to bed earlier, bringing DVR viewing
habits into the mix didn’t make much sense.
I watch exactly zero live tv. All my viewing goes through the DVR so
I can watch shows when I want to watch them.
Post by Ubiquitous
Some have made the case that the decreases in the 10pm hour mean that
Leno is right. Obviously, I don’t think so. I attribute the decreases in
the 10pm hour almost entirely to DVR proliferation. But sure, it could
be a variety of things from videogames, reading, watching DVDs and yes,
some people going to bed earlier. But if the trend of live viewing is up
at 11:30pm, it’s hard to ascribe any merit to the notion that people are
going to bed earlier overall.
Here is another radical thought: if someone has to be at work at 4 am
they may very well go to bed before 10pm.

Welcome the the 21st century.

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